IRC Driven

[07:13:15] login crovax: what about server boosts?

[07:13:30] login those who run profitable discord servers do pay for that stuff

[07:13:43] login you can upload longer videos too, i think

[07:13:54] login *it's

[07:14:23] login discord has been taking a lot of VC

[07:15:04] login venture

[07:15:12] login They are on their Series H

[07:15:19] login i.e., 8 rounds so far

[07:15:41] login they have spent (or will have spent) almost $1billion

[07:16:38] login they will offer a business subscription like teams eventually, unless teams copies its features first

[07:17:33] login look to china for funding models

[07:17:57] login what if the discord channel was run by a beautiful woman and desperate men were paying to give her 'roses'

[07:18:02] login that's the chinese model

[07:18:29] login they could improve their video offering too

[07:18:37] login discord doesn't play as smoothly as youtube

[07:18:50] login VC considers funding that stuff anathema

[07:18:58] login another alternative is gacha

[07:19:06] login discord loot boxes for emojis, stickers, avatars etc.

[07:19:22] login it's a lot like minting nfts... opening loot boxe

[07:19:24] login *boxes

[07:19:56] login they also have an API to integrate voice right into the game

[07:20:22] login now they have lots of different types of communities

[07:20:30] login that broadening is good

[07:20:37] login it's like irc for the world

[07:21:01] login they still put a # next to their channel names - the new people don't know that's an irc throwback

[07:21:14] login the whole server+channel model is a copy of irc

[07:21:32] login you know, discord was originally compatible with irc?

[07:21:44] login yes

[07:22:57] login you could have people subscribe to an irc server to receive and send messages to the discord server

[07:23:12] login the feature was removed eventually

[07:23:23] login yes, just like an rss feed but using irc's protocol

[07:23:40] login s/subscribe/connect

[07:24:01] login maybe discord can monetise by asking a subset of users to pay $1 per year

[07:24:04] login yes ^

[07:24:10] login discord bots are also huge

[07:24:30] login if discord could do video distribution on a per-user basis, that would be good

[07:24:36] login and integrate creator monetisation

[07:24:56] login and yes, goods in-game showing up as discord stickers or emoji or whatever

[07:25:14] login they have to get their videos as good as youtube first

[07:25:25] login lots of creators use mega for it now

[07:25:34] login i.e., patreon+discord+mega.nz

[07:26:04] login i wonder why they're delaying stuff

[07:26:09] login there is a lot of regulatory overhead

[07:26:29] login for every creator who wants to get paid out, one has to take and maintain their tax residency and send info to their tax dept

[07:26:33] login (for data matching)

[07:26:52] login and for buyers, they have to make sure none are from sanctioned countries

[07:27:06] login for crypto, they have to use chainalysis or similar to know which coins are blacklisted

[07:27:22] login there are also concerns with trafficking of data etc.

[07:27:34] login how to prevent discord from turning into a dark marketplace for stolen data

[07:27:44] login mega.nz is small enough to fly past the radar

[07:28:09] login and patreon's discord integration means creators can upload on mega and share the decryption key on discord with only those who send money via patreon

[07:28:29] login that way, patreon doesn't have to check too closely what mega links are being shared

[07:28:51] login discord doesn't have to know that someone is paying to be on the discord server (there is a Patreon bot that sets access roles on discord)

[07:29:02] login and mega doesn't have to know there's any money involved or even what the data is

[07:29:26] login mega makes money by charging creators to store data there, and users to download over a certain bandwidth (i.e., heavy downloaders)

[07:29:47] login patreon makes money by taking % fees from patrons

[07:29:55] login discord doesn't make money from the whole thing

[07:30:28] login no Chinese company made their own font

[07:30:36] login a lot of American VC companies made their own fonts

[07:30:57] login Airbnb made their own font too ;)

[07:31:04] login american vc companies change their logos once in a while

[07:31:12] login chinese vc companies don't do that stuff

[07:31:16] login *vc-backed

[07:31:25] login yes, that's the business ^

[07:31:59] login discord trust and safety is also here now

[07:32:11] login they have to moderate chats and account takeovers etc.

[07:32:37] login there was an exe that would swipe your discord credentials and steal your identity

[07:32:49] login discord took months to give the server back

[07:32:55] login by that time, everybody involved had moved on

[07:33:10] login FedNow is old

[07:33:15] login Other countries already have it

[07:33:38] login yes, but the other countries have their own realtime system already in operation

[07:33:52] login indirectly, it is like a cbdc

[07:34:11] login since it's real-time, they cannot borrow the money overnight and pay it the next day

[07:34:32] login so for the fednow daily limit, they have to have an equivalent amount of money in their fed account

[07:34:48] login that is, indirectly, a cbdc-backed daily limit

[07:35:03] login for larger payments, the bank borrows the funds overnight and then pays them out the next day

[07:35:33] login you'd be surprised how much it affects friend-to-friend payments

[07:35:43] login some restaurants also use it now

[07:36:55] login day trading or working for the fed?

[07:37:15] login there is institutional cbdc too

[07:37:40] login which is equivalent to a fed-reserve account

[07:37:45] login swing trading then?

[07:37:59] login you know, it's zero-sum the shorter the timeframe

[07:38:19] login the only non-zero-sum part is if a company buys its own stock back or issues dividends

[07:38:30] login yes, ComputerTech, it's cool when you use more layers

[07:38:42] login discord trusts google, and google pay trusts your CC

[07:38:52] login btu discord doesn't directly trust your CC (even if they use stripe or whatever)

[07:39:12] login i play with a demo forex account and have always lost money on it

[07:39:17] login well, overall

[07:39:23] login lost demo money*

[07:39:49] login survivorship bias right?

[07:39:58] login the money i lost, was won by the group of people on the other side

[07:40:15] login plus, i don't have the ability to short

[07:40:33] login that kind of scheme needs more people coming in to sustain the winners

[07:41:16] login from a first-principles perspective, couldn't a computer do what you do?

[07:42:00] login HTF holds are?

[07:42:14] login haven't heard that acronym before

[07:42:47] login how does the Medallion fund do it?

[07:42:56] login i think they know how short the big players are

[07:43:01] login and how close they are to getting margin called

[07:43:30] login ^ but that's just risky

[07:43:51] login the spot rockets linearly

[07:44:21] login i mean, with respect to spot, spot is linear

[07:44:27] login but with respect to spot, the option is not linear

[07:44:38] login so how is it a good hedge on both pump/dump

[07:45:13] login i guess being short on options = writing options right?

[07:46:00] login yeah, that was my misunderstanding

[07:48:30] login yes, it's a bear market

[07:48:53] login once the fed pauses interest rates, that's when the real bear market starts

[07:49:05] login well, it's different this time because of inflation

[07:49:12] login so bonds will move more than stocks

[07:49:24] login at least, depending on which stocks represent essentials

[07:50:09] login people are selling the short term and buying the long term

[07:50:47] login you could have bought I bonds

[07:50:49] login or TIPS

[07:51:08] login yes, but if you knew this was coming, you could have sized in over years

[07:51:19] login it could have been your inflation hedge

[07:51:25] login as part of your evergreen portfolio

[07:51:38] login is that in dollar terms, the 100-200% gains?

[07:52:03] login i saw you mentioned cambodia, thailand, malaysia but not vietnam

[07:52:08] login or laos

[07:52:37] login that's why you didn't mention indonesia either

[07:52:43] login yes, even china nationalises at whim

[07:52:59] login the main thing to check is, does the country have a swap line with the Fed

[07:53:34] login if it does, then the country doesn't nationalise US-company owned stuff, for fear of the swap line not being renewed

[07:53:49] login there is a lot of opportunity in emerging/frontier markets

[07:54:05] login especially those that are getting connected to the world economy

[07:54:24] login for pricing or even settlement?

[07:54:33] login how do they buy US dollars?

[07:54:38] login where does it enter the country from?

[07:55:04] login in Australia, I presented a 10-US-dollar note, and the other person wanted me to go to the ATM and get a $10 Aussie dollar not

[07:55:06] login *note

[07:55:28] login i.e., they do not know how to cash a $10 US note without losing a lot

[07:55:48] login that must mean there is a US-dollar market maker in cambodia

[07:55:51] login formal or informal

[07:56:02] login maybe a lot of drug trade, or organised crime?

[07:56:18] login surreptitious movement of US dollar notes into the country?

[07:56:58] login is that the real reason?

[07:57:01] login guilt?

[07:57:36] login did that gov payment cause further destruction of the riel?

[07:57:53] login oh, you mean US gov paid

[07:58:18] login does that mean giving everybody eRMB accounts?

[07:58:21] login that is the fastest way

[07:58:43] login China could easily introduce an eCNH account registration thing

[07:59:01] login they have police stations extraterritorially too, go in there, give your fingerprints, get an eCNH account

[07:59:19] login chinese gov gets kyc, you get eCNH account

[07:59:35] login CNH/CNY exchange rate will take care of any concerns around capital account controls

[08:00:01] login i imagine if China did that, US gov would ban anybody from getting an eCNH account

[08:00:41] login they could have just allowed the creation of Wechat or Alipay accounts

[08:00:46] login for foreigners

[08:00:58] login if 'n' chinese users verify they know the foreigner

[08:01:02] login n=3, say

[08:01:23] login they could track the social graph of the chinese users to make sure there are no 'verification cliques' or whatever

[08:02:17] login how does one get a cambodia trading account

[08:02:41] login you contact some cambodian person and use their ID?

[08:02:54] login ah, i see, so it's intermediated

[08:03:01] login reits = financialised lol

[08:03:29] login yet there is a cambodian reit that foreigners own

[08:03:49] login how do the cambodians pay income from the real property to foreigners

[08:04:00] login and how do foreigners pay capital for the cambodians to buy property?

[08:04:17] login aren't there rules around registering identities and stuff

[08:04:27] login i.e., does cambodia insist on knowing the ultimate beneficiary?

[08:04:45] login i don't have enough money to be on those

[08:05:03] login yeah, that seems to be the limit to getting 'access'

[08:05:46] login were you able to cash the 180k out?

[08:05:57] login through the reit i suppose

[08:06:25] login tbh none of it makes sense to me

[08:06:50] login i can't see the big flows that the other companies can, what chance do i have of competing

[08:07:04] login that's because of the crazy 2021 bull market

[08:07:25] login now the fed needs all that money back to destroy

[08:07:38] login and since you're not giving your gains up, they have to suck it out of the mortgage payers etc.

[08:08:07] login but debt defaults create inflation too, if the fed backstops them

[08:08:20] login the owners of the debt can't spend it like money

[08:08:28] login the borrowers have already spent the money

[08:08:56] login so what happens 1 year from now when the bank has to pay the backstop back?

[08:09:01] login my guess, they will extend it by 1 more year

[08:09:47] login if they keep extending it by 1 year, it will turn into QE

[08:10:04] login the only thing keeping it from being QE is the expectation that they will get paid back in 1 year with interest

[08:10:17] login extending it by 1 more year will make it 'more QE than not'

[08:10:35] login they are buying the old ones

[08:10:42] login through the backstop

[08:11:23] login if i borrow money from the Fed for 100 years, but promise to pay it back with interest, is it QE?

[08:11:39] login after all, after 100 years, the Fed will get the principal + interest, so it will be QT right?

[08:12:22] login yes, but the reason it's not infinite is because the interest payments are made with new issuance

[08:12:33] login it's the dilution of the currency

[08:12:49] login they use a deflator though

[08:12:58] login maybe infinite nominal gdp growth

[08:13:08] login but after applying the gdp deflator, it may not be infinite

[08:14:16] login don't they do it during a downturn too?

[08:14:48] login it's not like that in japan

[08:14:50] login not since 1990

[08:15:15] login if you bought in 1990, you're still down

[08:16:59] login i don't understand borrowing against liabilities

[08:18:15] login it's backstopped now with fannie and freddie after 5 years

[08:18:34] login that's because of the debt ceiling

[08:18:38] login yes, it is a house of cards

[08:19:06] login i think AI will unlock that

[08:19:37] login the fed will turn its deficits into 'assets'

[08:20:05] login the US buys other countries' currencies too right?

[08:20:10] login in addition to 'gold'

[08:20:47] login since there is a cost to production, the cost of marginal product is the floor on the price of gold

[08:21:04] login ^ yes

[08:21:19] login it's just leveraged gold

[08:21:28] login physical delivery will move the paper market

[08:22:03] login i thought technical analysis traders didn't look at the order book

[08:22:07] login only at the price feed

[08:22:43] login the fundamentals are the actual utility of gold

[08:22:52] login i.e., gold-plated connectors and stuff

[08:23:19] login maybe jewelry, but that is self-fulfilling

[08:23:27] login the price justifies the attractiveness of jewelry

[08:23:34] login nobody wears tungsten jewelry

[08:24:04] login people don't care about gold jewelry any more either

[08:24:09] login or gold watches or any of that stuff

[08:24:17] login a good analogy is china and silverware

[08:24:35] login grandparents passing that stuff to grandchildren like it's treasure, and children are shrugging their shoulders

[08:24:59] login it's the same with gold - an iphone is more of a treasure than gold

[08:25:11] login same with rolexes etc.

[08:25:21] login it's a different consumer basket

[08:25:38] login it's not rolex, silverware, furniture - stuff that was Depression-era expensive

[08:25:58] login If the alien gods of ancient egypt came back, they would have to buy US dollars

[08:26:10] login probably by eventually selling their gold to the Fed

[08:26:49] login aliens will probably trade in something they value, like hydrogen

[08:26:53] login i.e, water

[08:27:02] login potable water is the real gold

[08:27:13] login no, i didn't

[08:27:54] login probably where i eventually got the idea from

[08:28:07] login even water is not really useful - the main reason humans drink it is because it is devoid of salt

[08:28:30] login the real utility of water is that water with less salt can cause osmosis to work the right way

[08:28:49] login i.e., for the purpose of homeostasis

[08:29:38] login The aliens would be interested in Gibbs free energy

[08:29:51] login i.e., they'd be interested in useful energy

[08:30:35] login any tech they have will require energy as some form of input

[08:30:47] login because of the prevalance of stars, i think it will be solar

[08:30:53] login it could also be nuclear

[08:31:01] login or chemical, or all three

[08:31:21] login is that even possible

[08:31:43] login i thought that would have led to the end of the universe

[08:32:27] login beyond a certain distance, aliens cannot contact us because we're too far in the past

[08:32:38] login due to the accelerated expansion of the universe

[08:32:58] login i think more than inventing that, they would discover it

[08:33:13] login discover an already existing wormhole

[08:33:25] login quantum entanglement can't be use to transmit information faster than light though

[08:33:41] login and i don't know that level of physics either

[08:34:14] login they must have meant the phase speed of light

[08:34:18] login not the group speed of light

[08:35:07] login i just remembered a video i watched, looking for it now, you might enjoy it

[08:39:35] login I found the video: https://youtu.be/w8o-qC8E5ic?t=3141

[08:39:50] login he asks who knows about the cosmic microwave background, and look at who in the audience is confused

[08:40:04] login it's a 20 seconds, and i alreaedy set it to the right time

[08:41:02] login specifically, the person in white clothes with long hair on the second row from the back, right end

[08:41:49] login hello c0ded, how do you make a living?

[08:41:58] login is it in a zero-sum or positive-sum way

[08:42:27] login in that case, same as me

[08:42:57] login good night

[08:47:01] login it's because i chose it a long time ago

[08:47:17] login nobody can search for it on google without a lot of other confusers in the results

[08:47:52] login you could find accounts and stuff if you had the domain name, but just searching for 'Mikoolo' will give me your results

[08:47:58] login just searching for 'login' will not give you my results

[08:48:50] login What do you think of this person? https://twitter.com/chloe21e8?lang=en

[08:51:43] login This post? https://twitter.com/chloe21e8/status/1649439431571693569

[12:45:48] login is chris chan still here?

[12:46:00] login i thought he made his money and went offlie

[12:46:05] login *line

[12:46:39] login i didn't know he had a sex change

[12:46:54] login or that his mother was also in prison

[12:47:04] login maybe that was for insurance fraud

[12:47:13] login could have just sold the house

[12:47:29] login hopefully there are no similar LLMs

[12:47:48] login he doesn't have a 'social likeability' impulse

[12:48:05] login i only know of him through a youtube video about him a long time ago, and i forgot most of the details

[12:48:45] login i don't think help will help

[12:48:57] login didn't he have some kind of food thing?

[12:49:03] login the internet encourages him

[12:49:18] login there are a lot of fringe elements on the internet

[12:49:24] login there is no overton window

[12:49:35] login i don't know who matt stone is either

[12:49:50] login oh

[12:50:01] login i don't know why joe rogan agreed to have chris chan on

[12:50:15] login dose he think any of his audience will buy his sponsored products?

[12:50:22] login *any of chris chan's audience

[12:50:24] login *does

[12:50:38] login hy pyook

[12:50:39] login *hi

[12:51:00] login so there was no podcast

[13:14:19] login who is that?

[13:14:25] login Syndus: so it was real

[13:14:34] login uhu?

[13:18:45] login uhm?

[13:19:50] login what are these links?

[13:58:55] login isn't that a waste of time?

[13:59:02] login it's just a game

[13:59:58] login both are just a waste of time

[14:00:10] login is it okay to waste time?

[14:00:46] login i suppose that is true

[14:00:54] login perhaps you earn a lot of passive income

[14:01:16] login some families will just work and collect money to pass down through the generations

[14:01:21] login multiple generations at a time

[14:02:08] login no, im young

[14:02:18] login but my parents discouraged me from playing games

[14:02:38] login they didn't see any value in children playing video games

[14:02:52] login there were no good side effects

[14:03:08] login they might be educational if it's a resource allocation game

[14:03:31] login you didn't answer the passive income question

[14:03:44] login well, then you're alright

[14:04:11] login then you're older than e

[14:04:12] login *me

[14:04:16] login are they taken care of?

[14:05:07] login what will you do if they do come back to you?

[14:05:22] login or if they want to get married but were not able to save enough for a downpayment or whatever

[14:05:57] login or if married, they want to have children but don't think they can afford daycare or future college payments etc.

[14:06:04] login australia, you?

[14:06:55] login it's the same in the US right?

[14:07:11] login the future is much more expensive than one would think - due to healthcare and aged care expenses

[14:07:19] login $1000 per day in today's money

[14:08:02] login and with fewer young people in the future, things young people are better at will grow in expense even beyond just inflation

[14:09:02] login aren't at least some people saving 80% of their income?

[14:09:36] login i saw this one young woman in china saving every single yuan that she could, to the point of living much much below her means

[14:09:40] login she became famous online for it

[14:09:54] login if everybody followed that, the economy would restructure itself

[14:10:13] login everybody who wanted to save up for property or whatever it is people save for in china

[14:16:41] login india works that way, people only buy 4 things: 1. gold, 2. property, 3. education and 4. essentials

[14:17:13] login since the economy would crash, more people will accept lower pay

[14:17:29] login but also, more sellers will reduce prices

[14:17:55] login i.e., the more everybody saves, the cheaper everything gets - it's a win-win

[14:26:01] login everybody can spend less, and then they'll have to work less too

[14:26:09] login everybody will get their time back

[18:21:14] login they can use can openers

[18:21:22] login but who is the kool-aid man?

[18:22:18] login ah, i see

[18:22:20] login jones

[18:23:41] login decarboxylate? so removing -COOH?

[18:24:14] login you know after gen z is gen alpha right?

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